#Vegas can survive without college football — as long as NFL goes on

LAS VEGAS — As a doomsday scenario for the college football season begins to develop, there is widespread fear and panic. If there are no Nick Saban sightings this fall, it might seem like the end of the world in Alabama.

In a race against the clock, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is helping to unify players from Power Five conferences in an attempt to rescue the 2020 season from the ruins of the coronavirus pandemic. It’s a two-minute drill of sorts, and Lawrence is an underdog.

What was feared all summer is becoming reality — college football Saturdays could be a lost cause.

But with a long list of major sporting events already eliminated or postponed, bookmakers from Nevada to New Jersey are past the shock-wave phase of what has happened and well into the planning phase of what the sportsbook business could look like in a different world. The absence of college football would be painful yet not financially crippling.

“We are going to take a hit if college football is not played this fall, but it’s probably not as big as some people believe,” Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “We expect a lot of the college money to flow over to the pro side.”

With sportsbooks facing a potential revenue problem, a major increase in NFL wagering is the most likely solution.

Consensus opinion is the books can survive without college football. The question no one wants to face is this: What if there’s no NFL season?

“I think there is a possibility there is either no college football or at least a limited season, and it’s a fluid situation,” said USBookmaking’s Robert Walker, a former MGM Resorts sportsbook director. “It will definitely hurt from a bookmaking perspective, but of the two we would much rather have pro football. There are probably no guarantees there, as well.”

The NFL preseason has been wiped out, but the Houston Texans-Kansas City Chiefs regular-season opener set for Sept. 10 is still on for now.

“We just have to do the best we can with what we have,” Walker said.

What the books have to offer in September and October are the NBA and NHL playoffs, golf, UFC and hopefully the continuation of the MLB season. That would be a large enough menu to keep the lights on this fall. For sportsbooks that went dark inside closed casinos for more than two months this summer, the daily action in August is a huge improvement.

“We feel comfortable that we can make adjustments regardless of the fallout,” DraftKings sportsbook director John Avello said. “Football is a good piece of the action, but basketball is not that far behind.”

The Nevada sportsbook handle for 2019 totaled $5.3 billion, with football wagering leading the way at $1.87 billion (35 percent). Basketball was No. 2 on the handle list at $1.68 billion (31.7 percent), followed by baseball at $1.12 billion (21 percent).

While college and pro wagering numbers are not separated in the Nevada Gaming Control Board report, Kornegay said college action accounted for 46 percent of the Westgate’s football handle last year. Of course, that does not mean sportsbooks expect to see a decrease of nearly 50 percent in the football betting handle this season if there are no college games.

“Most of the college money will shift to the pro side, but not all of it,” Kornegay said. “Are we going to take a 20 percent or 30 percent hit? It might be only 10 percent. We’re not sure and it would be total speculation. What percentage is anyone’s guess.”

The thin summer schedule proved bettors will adjust to what’s available. Paul Stone, a Texas-based handicapper and VSiN analyst who specializes in college football, said he has flipped his preseason routine in preparation for more NFL betting.

“I have historically focused most of my handicapping energies on college football, both in terms of year-round preparation and in-season wagering,” Stone said. “However, I began shifting some of my focus around late July toward researching and studying NFL teams. With the fall college season in serious jeopardy as of today, most of my daily attention is being spent on the NFL.

“As sports handicappers, we have to be flexible and perhaps even be able to reinvent ourselves. Most respected handicappers are motivated by challenges, and I’m looking forward to handicapping the NFL much more intensively this season.”

Sportsbooks plan to expand NFL betting options, posting more propositions and fantasy-type wagers. Changes in the NFL schedule are also anticipated, with the league likely moving some games to Saturdays to take prime-time TV spots vacated by college football.

“It would make sense for the NFL to spread out the schedule and move two to three games to Saturdays,” Kornegay said. “Whenever you isolate a game, whether it’s college or pro, the wagering handle and TV ratings go up. I don’t see any downside to moving some games to Saturday.”

The college football season would be missed, but there is a game plan to replace it. Only the NFL is irreplaceable.