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#Will a Janet Yellen-run Treasury really help average Americans?

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#Will a Janet Yellen-run Treasury really help average Americans?

Janet Yellen has a great ­résumé to be our next Treasury secretary — Ivy league credentials in economics and vast experience at the Federal Reserve, including most recently as its chair.

What isn’t so good is her record at doing what is the most important part of any economist’s job: Helping average Americans live better and more prosperous lives.

I know this sounds like heresy given Yellen’s rep not just in mainstream economic circles but in the mainstream media. Isn’t she one of the architects of the Obama recovery following the 2008 financial crisis?

Yes, but looking back, the Obama-Yellen recovery wasn’t much of a recovery. During her tenure from 2014 to 2017, particularly in the ­Obama years, Yellen was a devotee of Keynesian spending and keeping interest rates largely unchanged from the financial-crisis lows.

Though understated in public, she also didn’t shy away from engaging in politics. She supported Obama’s fiscal agenda — higher taxes and regulations on businesses and entrepreneurs — not pushing back against what was clearly hampering economic growth and middle-income wages.

She became a darling of the progressive left for her speech at the Boston Federal Reserve in 2014 to enact policies that shrink the country’s allegedly daunting wealth gap, declaring it “has been widening more or less steadily for several decades, to a greater extent than in most advanced countries.”

Well if that’s the case, what did she do about it?

Not much. The stock market was roaring — but gains in wages were pretty dismal for working- and middle-class Americans and the economic recovery was the weakest in modern history. The rich were indeed getting richer by snapping up financial assets supercharged by the policies of the Fed.

That is, until the fiscal-policy mix under a GOP-led Congress and President Trump changed the ­dynamic.

US President Donald Trump
AFP via Getty Images

The Fed — the same agency that Yellen ran — published a study in September noting that, miraculously, the income gap began to reverse during the Trump years. The Fed’s “Survey of Consumer Finances” stated unequivocally that “between 2016 and 2019, families that were high wealth, had a college education, or identified as White non-Hispanic experienced proportionally smaller income growth than other groups of families but continued to have the highest income.”

Expect Yellen to propose massive new spending, tax increases and a lot more regulation in an economy still stricken by COVID. Serving Joe Biden, Yellen will undoubtedly pressure current Fed chair Jerome Powell to keep interest rates as low as possible.

But printing money is a double-edged sword for anyone really worried about the wealth gap. Wall Street traders love it because you can borrow cheaply and buy stocks, which is one reason why we hit Dow 30K. But middle- and working-class savers who can’t buy stocks continue to get screwed on low-yielding investments like bank ­accounts.

During Yellen’s Senate confirmation hearings, Republicans will be doing a country a disservice if they don’t raise her uneven economic record, and why bringing back the old will be good for the middle class she allegedly cares so deeply about.

Why two favorites lost out

Now that Janet Yellen is about to become Treasury secretary, the big question I keep hearing from my Wall Street sources is how did she get there?

Wasn’t Fed board member Lael Brainard, or possibly TIAA-CREF chief Roger Ferguson on the short list and one of them a lock for the job?

Yes and no. Brainard and Ferguson were the top choices of the Biden team, according to sources with direct knowledge of the matter. But the thinking changed in Biden’s inner circle about a week ago when it began to weigh the odds of a GOP-led Senate with Mitch McConnell as majority leader.

People inside the Biden transition are pretty certain the GOP will win at least one of the two Georgia Senate runoffs, which means the Senate stays with the GOP. To get through Biden’s ambitious fiscal-policy agenda — massive new spending and new taxes — he will need someone who’s a known quantity to deal with the Republican leadership.

No knock on Brainard or Ferguson, but neither has done much politicking over years. Meanwhile, I am told Yellen is in the catbird seat to retake the position of Fed chair as a replacement for Jerome Powell.

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