#The reason home underdogs are losing their bite

When the Astros played host to the Dodgers for a two-game series last week, the prices on Houston as a home underdog were tantalizing to many veteran handicappers.

The Astros had been favorites in 79 consecutive regular-season games, a streak that ended Tuesday when the Dodgers closed -220 with starter Walker Buehler opposing Framber Valdez. The pitching matchup clearly favored Los Angeles, but there appeared to be some line value in Houston getting 190 at home.

While home ’dogs are typically attractive to sharper handicappers, the betting public often gets criticized for landing squarely on road favorites. But in this coronavirus-riddled Major League Baseball season, which is abnormal in so many ways, it’s time to rethink the true worth of home-field advantage.

With cardboard cutouts replacing fans while crowd noise is pumped into empty stadiums, home ’dogs are losing their bite.

Road favorites were 20-4 through Thursday, including the Dodgers’ sweep of the Astros — 5-2 on Tuesday and 4-2 (at -150) on Wednesday. It was hip to be square through the first week of the season.

It’s a small sample size at this point, and most lopsided trends usually regress to the mean, yet it seems clear that home-field advantage in 2020 means little to nothing and prices must be adjusted by oddsmakers.

Using the Yankees as an example, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said the home field was worth 30 cents to the betting line in the past, but only 10 cents this year. So if the Yankees were -180 home favorites over the Red Sox in August 2019, the line should be -160 in the same situation this year.

Road teams posted a 54-50 record (51.9 percent), including 23-10 when favored, through Friday’s games.

In the previous 15 seasons dating to 2005, MLB home teams had a 53.9 winning percentage in the regular season — the lowest percentage of the four major sports. In the same time frame, NBA home teams won 59.4 percent of regular-season games, followed by the NFL (57.2) and NHL (54.9).

In theory, MLB road teams should fare slightly better this year simply because of the absence of rowdy crowds that rally home teams and possibly influence umpires to make ball-strike calls that favor the home sides. Fans can supply motivation, and showboating umps do occasionally play to the crowds, believe it or not.

If NFL games are staged without fans or in mostly empty stadiums, how will the home field factor into the betting line? The standard three points given to the home team might be reduced to 1½ points or less. The success of MLB home teams — or lack of it — is worth tracking because similar trends could develop in the football season.

This is an unprecedented situational study for handicappers, who would be wise to reconsider old-school principles. When touting the value of a home ’dog in baseball, look at the team more like a neutral-field ’dog and adjust the numbers accordingly.