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#The Hill’s Morning Report — Seven days of closing arguments

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The Hill’s Morning Report — Seven days of closing arguments

It’s Tuesday, which means there’s exactly one week left until the midterm elections. Republicans and Democrats are using the final stretch to connect with voters and tip razor-tight races in their party’s favor.

In response to rising gas prices, President Biden on Monday accused oil companies of “war profiteering” and raised the possibility of a windfall tax on energy companies if they don’t boost domestic production.

He criticized oil companies for taking in record-setting profits while refusing to help lower prices at the gas pump for consumers, suggesting he would look to Congress to levy tax penalties on the companies if they don’t invest some of their revenues into lowering costs (The Hill and U.S. News).

“My team will work with Congress to look at these options that are available to us and others,” Biden said. “It’s time for these companies to stop war profiteering, meet their responsibilities in this country and give the American people a break and still do very well.”

Biden’s messaging comes just days before voters head to the polls and underscores an effort by Democrats in recent weeks to pivot to appealing to voters on economic issues.

After Democrats saw a jolt of momentum in the late summer and early fall, control of the Senate is now in a dead heat with just a week to go before Election Day, write The Hill’s Max Greenwood and Al Weaver. The playing field has evened out dramatically in recent weeks amid a laser-focused effort by Republicans to tie their Democratic rivals to perceived rising crime and stubbornly high inflation.

Nevertheless, Republican control of the Senate is far from a foregone conclusion. Recent polling shows races tightening across the nation’s premier battleground states, and there’s widespread agreement among operatives in both parties that the battle for the Senate majority could go either way.

Projections & polling to watch:

▪ FiveThirtyEight: It’s a dead heat for the Senate, with a 51 in 100 chance of Democrats winning control of the chamber, compared to 49 in 100 for Republicans.

▪ Decision Desk HQ: As of Monday evening, their model predicts that Republicans have a 50.9 percent chance of controlling the Senate, with a mean seat projection of 51 (R) and 49 (D).

▪ A New York Times-Siena College poll of key Senate races in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada.

Democrats fear chances of defeating Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson slipped away for the third time in roughly 12 years in a state that otherwise has a strong track record of voting for Democrats, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton.

Forecasters are giving Democratic candidate Mandela Barnes, the state’s lieutenant governor, less chance of winning than challengers in the top-tier Senate races in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, but Democrats still hope they can drive enough young and base Democratic voters to the polls to defeat Johnson.

One GOP strategist conceded that his steady lead has narrowed in recent days.

“It’s closer now than it was a week ago,” the Senate GOP adviser told The Hill. “Maybe that’s Democrats coming home.”

Across the country, a slate of controversial GOP House nominees, such as Michigan candidate John Gibbs, are testing how far voters are willing to go to support a Republican ticket over concerns about how Democrats have handled issues such as the economy.

Gibbs, a Harvard- and Stanford-educated computer scientist and Christian missionary, has also “suggested that women should not have the right to vote, referenced conspiracy theories that a prominent Democrat participated in Satanic rituals and mused that the lost city of Atlantis might be buried beneath the North Pole” (Politico).

The Hill’s Niall Stanage has rounded up five midterm races that will deliver big lessons for both parties — from trends among Latino voters to foreshadowing for 2024 and GOP candidates winning over working-class Democrats.

Governors’ races are also tightening a week before election day. In New York, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lead over Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) has shrunk to 6 points in recent weeks, according to an Oct. 28 Emerson College poll.

For months, Hochul had a double-digit lead over Zeldin in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor in more than 20 years. But Zeldin has focused his campaign heavily on crime, and in a state that’s seen sentencing reforms and the elimination of cash bail, coupled with rising crime rates in New York City, it seems to be working (Time).

“Zeldin’s really put his shoulder into making this a crime election, because he thinks he can win it,” Evan Roth Smith, a founding partner at Slingshot Strategies, told Time.

▪ Richmond Times-Dispatch: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) campaigns for Zeldin in New York.

▪ The New York Times: With allies nearby, Hochul and Zeldin try to spur voters to polls.

Midterm pressures have also divided and inflamed the responses to last week’s attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) husband Paul Pelosi, report The Hill’s Emily Brooks and Mike Lillis and The New York Times. The responses and finger-pointing over political violence have fueled tensions and partisan arguments in the week before the midterm elections that will decide if Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats keep or lose control of the House.

The tragic episode further stoked the already fraught debate over crime, law enforcement and the limits of violent political speech, particularly in the wake of last year’s attack on the U.S. Capitol.

▪ The New York Times: Federal prosecutors charged the man accused of breaking into the House Speaker’s home with attempting to kidnap her husband and with assaulting a relative of a federal official, according to charging documents filed on Monday.

▪ The Hill: Former President Trump ties the Pelosi attack to crime issues and to Democrats during a Sunday interview with a conservative Spanish-language station.

Related Articles

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Biden avoids some battleground states in midterms’ final stretch.

▪ Punchbowl News: The House Republican Conference will hold its candidate forum for leadership elections on Nov. 14 and the election on Nov. 15, as of current plans. House Democrats are likely to hold leadership elections after Thanksgiving.

▪ ProPublica: A county elections director stood up to locals who believe the voting system is rigged. They pushed back harder.

▪ CNN: Trump asks the Supreme Court to stop the IRS from turning over his tax returns to the House.

▪ FiveThirtyEight: What happened to Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams (D)?

LEADING THE DAY

➤ SUPREME COURT

A conservative majority on the Supreme Court on Monday sounded skeptical that affirmative action admissions policies in higher education are necessary or fair in pursuit of student body diversity (The Hill).

Cases involving Harvard University and the University of North Carolina that were explored by justices over five hours of oral arguments on Monday teed up the prospect that decades of race-based admissions precedent could be overturned by the 6-3 conservative majority court, which during its last term showed its willingness to scrap past precedents.

The two cases most likely will result in separate court decisions but probably not until late June (The New York Times). Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who previously served on one of Harvard’s governing bodies, recused herself from the Harvard case, prompting the court to separate the cases.

Nine states have barred race-based affirmative action, including California in 1996, Washington in 1998, Florida in 1999, Michigan in 2006, Nebraska in 2008, Arizona in 2010, New Hampshire and Oklahoma in 2012, and Idaho in 2020.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor pointed to statistics from higher education institutions in the states that have banned affirmative action. At one point, she raised those trends to push back on conservatives’ assertion that a 25-year timeline the Supreme Court set in its 2003 ruling sanctioning the use of race in admissions means affirmative action programs are now unnecessary.

“Even your adversary said he didn’t see the 25 years as a set deadline. It was an expectation,” Sotomayor said during questioning. “What we know we have nine states who have tried it and in each of them as I mentioned earlier, whites have either, white admissions have either remained the same or increased. And clearly, in some institutions, the numbers for underrepresented groups [have] fallen dramatically, correct?” (CNN).

“I’ve heard the word diversity quite a few times, and I don’t have a clue what it means,” Justice Clarence Thomas said. “It seems to mean everything for everyone.” Justice Samuel Alito asked a similar question about the phrase “underrepresented minority,” reported The New York Times’s Adam Liptak. “What does that mean?” he asked, adding that college admissions are “a zero-sum game” in which granting advantages to one group necessarily disadvantages others.

In response to conservative justices’ questioning about when the use of race in higher education admissions would end, U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, while defending the University of North Carolina’s program, emphasized the significance of gender disparities among the attorneys who appeared Monday before the Supreme Court.

Prelogar said that it was not about defining a precise quota to achieve diversity but about acknowledging extreme disparities and how they can “cause people to wonder whether the path to leadership is open.”

Prelogar was the only female attorney arguing Monday among the six lawyers who participated in oral arguments (CNN).

▪ SCOTUSblog, James Romoser: The court is poised to set jurisprudence on race for generations, and not just in affirmative action.

▪ The Washington Monthly: The court’s third great crisis.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL

Ships carrying grain left ports in Ukraine on Monday, two days after Russia said it was pulling out of the United Nations-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative achieved over the summer. The United Nations is trying to put the deal back together but on Monday, Russia said movement of ships in the Black Sea security corridor is “unacceptable” (Reuters).

Ukraine’s interior minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, said at least 12 ships left Ukrainian ports, including one vessel holding 40,000 tons of grain headed for Ethiopia (The Washington Post).

Reuters: Russian President Vladimir Putin says power grid strikes and grain deal withdrawal announcement were responses to a Crimea drone attack blamed on Ukraine.

Even as countries imposed sanctions on Russia after its February invasion of its neighbor, international trade with Moscow has boomed this year, thanks in part to shifting alliances. The New York Times breaks down how Russia pays for its war (check out the graphic).

“The value of its exports actually grew after it invaded Ukraine,” the Times analysis shows, “even in many countries that have taken an active role in opposing Russia.”

Norway, which shares a border with Russia, has been spooked by drone sightings and fears of unverified foreign intelligence gathering inside the country. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said his country’s military will “increase its preparedness” starting today. He said he has “no reason to believe that Russia wants to involve Norway or any other country directly in the war,” but he said the situation in Ukraine makes it “necessary for all NATO countries to be increasingly on their guard” (The Guardian).

Reuters: Russian missiles hit apartments in the southern port city of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, overnight, killing one.

In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro has yet to concede the election he on Sunday lost to challenger and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — known as “Lula” — prompting concern that he may not accept the results.

For months, Bolsonaro had claimed the only way he would lose the presidential election would be if it were rigged. He announced Monday that he plans to address the nation on Tuesday, though it remains unclear what his message will be (The New York Times).

Biden on Monday congratulated Lula on his victory, calling the president-elect to discuss the U.S. and Brazil’s work to combat climate change, safeguard food security and manage regional migration, according to the White House.

Axios: Lula looks to restore Brazil’s tarnished global stature.

OPINION

■ Lula’s triumph is a win for Brazil’s political center — not the left, by Mac Margolis, global opinions political columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3SRP3Px

■ How the impending red wave could become a tsunami, by Douglas E. Schoen, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3WkjGjG

WHERE AND WHEN

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The House meets Thursday at noon for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14.

The Senate convenes Thursday at 10:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. Biden will travel to Fort Lauderdale, Fla., to discuss Social Security and Medicare at 3 p.m.. Biden will campaign for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist in Golden Beach, Fla., at 4:45 p.m. The president will travel to Florida Memorial University in Miami Gardens for a political event at 7 p.m. to help the Democratic National Committee, Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), who is running for the Senate, and Crist. The president will return to the White House late tonight.

Vice President Harris will participate at 4:30 p.m. in radio interviews related to the midterm elections.

Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra will be in Los Angeles to lead a 10:30 a.m. PT roundtable at Union Station with Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) about the Affordable Care Act open enrollment season. The secretary at noon will visit the Kenneth Williams Health Center in Los Angeles to lead a roundtable with Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) about access to COVID-19 and flu vaccines by Latino and other underserved community residents. Becerra will visit the Boys & Girls Club of San Fernando Valley to lead a roundtable with Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Calif.) at 2:30 p.m. PT about mental and behavioral health issues important to young people in the Latino community and various federal efforts to support mental health and to prevent suicides.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet with the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee as part of its quarterly refunding process. Members of the committee from banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and other financial businesses provide their take on the overall strength of the U.S. economy with recommendations on a variety of technical debt management issues.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will participate in the White House Women’s Economic Impact briefing for national community leaders at 12:30 p.m. He will join White House senior advisers at 3:30 p.m. for the White House Youth Community Economic Impact briefing for young civic leaders from around the country.

ELSEWHERE

➤ TECH

Billionaire Elon Musk is fond of thinking out loud or at least tweeting and retreating. Now that he’s the sole director of the Twitter board as he determines the direction he will take his $44 billion company, more of that seems likely.

The big question in the political world is what Musk’s definition of free speech and an open “town square” will become and whether Twitter’s ban on former President Trump will be lifted and, if so, whether Trump will leap back in. The former president has suggested his preference is to stick with conservative platform Truth Social, but Trump is also known to change his mind.

Josh Green, Bloomberg Opinion: Democrats hate him, but Musk might be their savior. Letting Trump back on Twitter could help to galvanize and unify the Democratic Party for the 2024 elections.

Among Twitter employees, the big question is about pending layoffs. The Washington Post reported on Monday that a first round will target 25 percent of the company’s workforce of more than 7,000. Layoffs, according to the Post, are to touch almost all departments and are expected to specifically impact sales, product, engineering, legal, and trust and safety in the coming days.

On Sunday Musk tweeted that reporting about impending layoffs at Twitter was “false.”

Earlier this year, Musk told prospective partners in the purchase deal that he planned to cut nearly 75 percent of Twitter’s total workforce, which would leave the company with about 2,000 employees, according to interviews and documents obtained by the Post. Musk last week told employees when he visited Twitter’s headquarters that he did not plan to cut three-fourths of the workforce.

Twitter’s nine-member board has been dissolved and the company’s former top executives are gone (The Hill).

Musk and the tech investors who are helping him transition the company indicate an interest in monetizing Twitter’s blue check verification with a subscription model, a potential change for a platform that has been supported by advertising and is free to users (The Verge reported on Sunday that subscription verification of $20 a month had been discussed).

▪ Axios: Musk’s team is working to reboot Vine this year. Twitter shuttered the looping-video app in 2016 after acquiring it four years earlier and then reportedly tried to sell it.

▪ NPR: Across the Atlantic, officials remind Musk that European speech rules apply to Twitter. “There is a European rulebook, and you should live by it,” Margrethe Vestager, the European Commission’s executive vice president who oversees digital policy for the 27-nation bloc, said in an interview. “Otherwise, we have the penalties. We have the fines. We have all the assessments and all the decisions that will come to haunt you.”

▪ The New York Post: Musk deletes his tweet about an unfounded rumor about the Pelosi attack.

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH

The Food and Drug Administration reports a shortage in the United States of amoxicillin, an oral antibiotic often prescribed for children and in use in treating rising cases of the respiratory infection RSV (U.S. News & World Report). The exact cause of the shortage is unclear but the operating assumption is increased demand.

“I think it’s going to be challenging for doctors and prescribers to give their patients a prescription that they’ll then be able to get filled, because pharmacies are going to have a variety of different strengths in stock, and you hate to have that delay of the back and forth, especially for an antibiotic they usually want to get started pretty quick. So I think it’s going to be a frustrating shortage,” Erin Fox, a senior pharmacy director at University of Utah Health, told CNN.

The Atlantic: How COVID-19 helped grow an essential treatment for pneumonia in Senegal.

Driven by droughts, floods and armed conflicts, a record number of cholera outbreaks around the globe have affected hundreds of thousands of people and so severely strained the supply of vaccines that global health agencies are rationing doses, The New York Times reports.

The Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia have reported outbreaks, overwhelming fragile health systems and putting millions at risk. While cholera is typically fatal in about 3 percent of cases, the World Health Organization said recent outbreaks are resulting in higher rates of fatalities.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,070,389. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,649 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

THE CLOSER

And finally … ♻️ All that plastic being tossed in recycling bins likely isn’t going where you think it is. According to a new Greenpeace report, only a mere 5 percent of plastic is actually recycled (NPR). The organization calls plastic recycling a “dead end” — and even the plastics industry concedes the national recycling effort needs help.

Report author Jan Bell, a leading critic and thorn in the side of plastic manufacturers, wants the American public to face facts. Grocery bag drop-off boxes are glorified trash cans. That swirly recycling symbol on coffee cup lids and clamshell boxes is more wishful thinking than fact. And while some clear plastic bottles may be recyclable, green ones are not.

Greenpeace says it wants governments, manufacturers and merchants to embrace changes, including adoption of quotas for reusable packaging, “reuse and refill” practices and even a renewed embrace of reusable glass in place of throwaway plastic.

▪ WJLA-TV: In Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia, there are “Trick or Trash” boxes that collect and will recycle … get ready … the small plastic candy wrappers from Halloween treats that customarily wind up in the trash.

▪ Grist: 380 million tons of plastic are made every year. None of it is truly recyclable.

▪ CNN, Chris Cillizza analysis: We consume the rough equivalent of a credit card’s worth of plastic every week.

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