#St. John’s season preview, prediction, games to watch

Next year may have finally arrived.

After more than two decades of mostly irrelevant basketball, underperformance and recruiting misfires, poor coaching hires and questionable decision-making — always thinking next year could be the year — St. John’s has the pieces to matter again.

It returns the reigning Big East leading scorer (Julian Champagnie), last season’s conference freshman of the year and co-defensive player of the year (Posh Alexander), and a head coach (Mike Anderson) who has never had a losing season. It upgraded the roster with five experienced transfers who better fit the program’s up-tempo, pressing style.

Anderson’s first two seasons have been successful, consecutive winning seasons that surpassed low expectations. Last year’s team finished with a winning league record for the first time in six seasons and flirted with the NCAA Tournament. But now there is pressure to win from a starved fan base in what is expected to be Champagnie’s final year on campus.

“You want to be playing in March and on into March,” Anderson said. “You want to win conference championships. That’s the [next] step. That’s what I came here for.”

Picked by the league’s coaches to finish fourth in the Big East, St. John’s last won an NCAA Tournament game in 2000. It has reached the Big Dance just four times since, going one-and-done each time. This could finally be the year the Johnnies break through. It all starts Tuesday against Mississippi Valley State.

Why St. John’s will make the NCAA Tournament

It has two of the top seven or so players in the Big East in Champagnie and Alexander. Most nights, St. John’s will have the best player on the floor, if not the top two. On paper, it is a tournament team, possessing depth, experience, size and athleticism recent teams have lacked. Anything less than making the tournament would be a major disappointment.

Why St. John’s will miss the NCAA Tournament

The new pieces don’t mesh. Champagnie and Alexander fail to progress as expected. The soft non-conference schedule bites the Johnnies, who are unable to knock off Indiana or Kansas and lack the résumé of other bubble teams that tested themselves more frequently prior to conference play.

3 Key Questions

Who emerges as a third scorer?

There are many options among the transfers, from forwards Aaron Wheeler (Purdue) and Joel Soriano (Fordham) to guards Montez Mathis (Rutgers), Stef Smith (Vermont) and Tareq Coburn (Hofstra) — as three scored in double figures in their previous stops. Another possibility is Dylan Addae-Wusu, a pleasant surprise as a freshman contributor. The best bet could be Coburn, the Hofstra grad who and averaged 15.1 points last year and whom Champagnie said is the team’s most potent outside shooter.

Does Posh take a leap forward?

There were two St. John’s teams last year — the one that thrived when Alexander was aggressive and attacked, and the one that floundered when he was passive. It was 11-2 in games Alexander scored in double figures and 3-9 when he didn’t. Surrounded by more shooters, the sophomore should have extra room to maneuver, and could improve upon his strong freshman season, especially if his jump shot becomes more consistent after he shot a shade under 30 percent from deep a year ago.

Who will be Alexander’s caddy?

There are two obvious options: Smith and freshman Rafael Pinzon, a three-star recruit from Long Island Lutheran who has impressed during the preseason. Addae-Wusu did handle the point on occasion last year, so he could see time there as well. Anderson likely would prefer Pinzon to earn the job, so Smith and Addae-Wusu can play off the ball, their more natural positions.

X factor

Joel Soriano

Soriano is the most important newcomer, and by a wide margin. The 6-foot-11 Yonkers native who averaged a near double-double for Fordham last season has the potential to fill a gaping hole — a quality big man — that has persisted across several seasons and spanning multiple coaching staffs. He can score in the post and be a force on the glass, two areas of need, and there is optimism Soriano is ready for the Johnnies’ frenetic pace after losing 25 pounds since arriving on campus in June.

Games to Watch

St. John’s at Indiana (Nov. 17)

The Red Storm makes its third ever trip to Bloomington for its first big test of the season. Soriano will be tasked with limiting Indiana preseason Associated Press All-American and double-double machine Trayce Jackson-Davis, a stiff challenge.

St. John’s vs. Kansas (Dec. 3)

The first college basketball game at the brand new UBS Arena at Belmont will be a golden opportunity for St. John’s to make a bold statement. Beat Final Four contender Kansas, ranked third entering the season, and the Johnnies could have a number next to their name for the first time in the Anderson era.

St. John’s at Seton Hall (Dec. 20)

The rivals met three times last year, including their first encounter in the Big East Tournament since 2002, won by Seton Hall. The Pirates took two of the matchups, extending their recent control of the rivalry. But for the first time in years, St. John’s may have higher expectations — and the better team. In an added twist, Seton Hall landed three-star guard Jaquan Sanders on Friday. The Queens native originally committed to St. John’s, before flipping his decision.

St. John’s vs. Villanova (Feb. 8)

This kicks off a massive three-game stretch, as St. John’s faces three of the league’s best teams — Villanova, Connecticut and Xavier — across eight days that could swing its season. First up are the Wildcats, the perennial Big East favorite the Johnnies upset a year ago at home. Can they do it again?

St. John’s vs. Connecticut (Feb. 13)

What a way to start Super Bowl Sunday — with the first St. John’s-UConn matchup at the Garden in nine years. The two teams played only once last year, a Johnnies road victory, due to the Huskies going into a COVID-19 pause. It feels right that the first game between the two rivals in the city will happen at a full MSG.

Anonymous Coach’s Take

“If they can shoot the ball better than they did last year, I think that’s the only question mark I have with them. Obviously, Posh is going to be better, Champagnie is going to be better. I like the big kid they added, Soriano. He’s going to give them a presence, which they didn’t have last year. … Mathis fits their system really well because of how athletic he is, the way he defends. He gives them a little more physicality. The kid Smith can really shoot it. Coburn is good. I’d be starting him if I was them. … I think they’re going to be tough. If they can consistently shoot the ball, then they can be a second weekend team.”

Prediction

23-12, Fourth place in Big East, No. 8 seed in NCAA Tournament, Second-round exit

Expect a slow start, losses to Indiana and Kansas, and even some struggles against low-major non-conference foes. There are so many new pieces, so much unfamiliarity with how Anderson wants to play. But there is also a lot of talent on this roster, pieces that fit. By February, as Coburn emerges as a consistent third scorer behind Champagnie and Alexander, St. John’s will be formidable, reeling off consecutive wins at the Garden over Villanova and Connecticut. The Johnnies go dancing and win a game in the tournament for the first time since 2000 behind a monster performance from Champagnie, who is drafted early in the second round a few months later.