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#Take North Carolina, Va. Tech over Duke

“Take North Carolina, Va. Tech over Duke”

This is March — one of the best sporting months of the year. Conference tournaments are in full effect, with the top-notch league tourneys about to receive the baton to put us into full March Madness.

Normally one of the most dominant and consistent conferences in basketball, the ACC was flipped upside down this year. There’s only one truly elite team in the league — Duke — but beyond that, the ACC has limited depth and has underwhelmed.

While the Blue Devils are the clear-cut No. 1 team in the ACC, it’s always tough to gauge this program’s motivation. Coach K has shown in the past he wants to go into the NCAA Tournament fully healthy.

I have no interest in Duke as the -130 favorite in a tournament format. Instead, I’m adding an extra half unit to these two contenders to take the title at Barclays Center (odds by BetMGM).

North Carolina (10/1)

I deemed North Carolina as one of the biggest wild cards not only in the ACC, but in all of college basketball this season. That statement remains true, as the Heels pulled off one of the most jaw-dropping wins in my 20+ years watching them.

Winning at Cameron Indoor in Coach K’s last home game was impressive, but dominating the game, per ShotQuality, is even more stunning.

North Carolina is a talented team, but what makes this result shocking is how the Tar Heels’ defense performed. Sure, Paolo Banchero had a layup drill any time he had one-on-one coverage, but that’s the price to pay if it means limiting Duke’s other weapons.

This is still a scorching hot, high-powered offense that can shoot its way to a run or shoot itself into an early exit in a tournament. The Heels can keep up the scoring pace with the best of them, as they rank top-20 in AdjO.

If the defense can continue to help the offense, North Carolina becomes a very intriguing futures piece. That is especially true at 10/1, as you can hedge if the Heels make the ACC finals.

Virginia Tech (9/1)

I will die on this hill. Virginia Tech is sneakily one of the best teams in the ACC. I know it’s hard to believe because of how the Hokies performed this season, but KenPom still has them as the second-best team in the conference

NCAA
Virginia Tech’s Keve Aluma
Getty Images

This is a very balanced team on both ends of the court. Virginia Tech ranks 28th in AdjO and 54th in AdjD. The Hokies finished the regular season with an ugly loss vs. Clemson, but before that, they were on a three-game win streak.

This team is still legit, but time is running out for the Hokies to put it all together. They still have my interest, though, as they have the formula to beat Duke and other high-powered offenses.

Virginia Tech’s style of play isn’t pretty, but it gets the job done. This is a team that wants to play as slowly as possible, limit its opponents’ shot opportunities and smother shooters into taking ugly looks. The Hokies’ offense is clean and efficient, looking for the best shot possible.

I think Virginia Tech will put together a run, making this a must-play for me. The Hokies benefit from being on the lower part of the bracket, and by beginning their run in the second round. They will get a revenge game against Clemson or a tuneup against NC State.

If they can get past Notre Dame and play North Carolina in the semis, we have a guarantee that one of our futures will go to the ACC final.

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