#Scientists want AI to help predict dangerous hurricanes
“#Scientists want AI to help predict dangerous hurricanes”
September 3, 2020 | 4:23pm
Getty Images
Getty Images
ESA/NASA via Getty Images
Being able to predict the intensity of a storm as it is brewing is incredibly difficult. There are many factors at play, but NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory has honed in on a few key variables that an AI algorithm could search for in order to make an accurate prediction.
As JPL explains, the researchers have determined that a spike in the rainfall near the core of the storm is a good indicator that the storm is gearing up for something big. On top of that, the intensity of the storm can be judged in part by the amount of water ice present in the hurricane’s intense cloud formations. The more powerful the winds, the greater the odds that water will be carried high enough to turn to ice.
The good news here is that these are things that can be sniffed out by NASA’s own satellites, and pairing those satellites with an AI program to act as a watchdog could produce a useful early warning system for those in the path of a storm that’s about to get a whole lot more powerful.
In testing their new framework for predicting changes in storm intensity, the researchers found that it was between 40% and 200% more accurate than the standard method for predicting rapid intensification (or RI for short). On the other end of the spectrum, the rate of false positives was only 4% to 7% higher. That’s a pretty dramatic improvement with very little risk downside.
Hurricanes and other tropical storms don’t exactly “sneak up” on anyone anymore. We have plenty of data to show when and where a hurricane is likely to strike. However, predicting the intensity of the hurricane when it reaches land is still largely a guessing game. If artificial intelligence combined with satellite data can change that in a meaningful way, it could save a lot of lives in the process. There’s still more work to be done before AI can be unleashed to predict the weather, but things are looking promising.
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