#Sam Darnold can cover big number

New York Jets (+11) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Jets are not a good football team, but that’s why we’re getting double digits. Besides, even though the Colts did cover as 3.5-point favorites over the Vikings in Week 2, this fits in our basic strategy of fading QB Philip Rivers when he’s in the role of favorite. The Colts should be content to grind out a win, and Sam Darnold should be able to do enough to stay within two scores as the Colts defense isn’t as good as the Bills and 49ers units the Jets had to face the first two games. If the Jets can get to 17 points, they can cover this inflated number.

DENVER BRONCOS (+6.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Broncos are 0-2 but a more respectable 2-0 ATS, as they’ve covered in their losses to the Titans and Steelers with a defense that keeps them in the game and competent if unspectacular quarterback play, first from Drew Lock and now Jeff Driskel. The new-look Buccaneers — with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, etc. — are still overrated in my book and barely covered vs. the Panthers with a late Fournette TD as they were trying to run out the clock. So, I’ll fade them and take the points again, this time with the home underdog.

Last week: 0-2, Panthers (L), Texans (L).
2020 season: 1-3.