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#Celtics vs. Heat, Rockets vs. Nuggets, more

“Celtics vs. Heat, Rockets vs. Nuggets, more”

We went 2-for-2 on our two NBA picks against the spread on Tuesday, cashing easily in the Knicks’ 30-point rout of the Pistons and sniffing out the over potential on an unnecessarily low total between the Clippers and Trail Blazers.

Can we keep that momentum rolling into Wednesday’s slate? All but four teams are in action in this loaded midweek menu, highlighted by a favorable spot for the NBA’s best team and a curious (and rare) rematch spot out West. 

Here’s a look at which games we’re betting on at BetMGM on Wednesday:


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NBA Wednesday odds, picks (via BetMGM)

  • Celtics -9.5 vs. Heat
  • Raptors -2.5 @ Pelicans
  • Nuggets -11.5 vs. Rockets
Jayson Tatum drives to the rim
Jayson Tatum drives to the rim
Getty Images

Celtics vs. Heat (7:30 p.m. ET) prediction and analysis

Can anyone keep pace with the Celtics amid their vengeance tour to start the 2022-23 season? Last year’s runners-up have gotten off to a stellar start to the year, winning 17 of 21 games (13-8 ATS) and outscoring opponents by an NBA-best 9.0 points per 100 possessions.

They’ve been even better since early November, winning 13 of their last 14 with seven double-digit victories after Monday’s 35-point beatdown of the Hornets. That game typified everything that makes this team so dangerous – Jayson Tatum went off for 35 points; Marcus Smart had 15 assists and was one of five double-digit scorers; and Boston’s defense held Charlotte to 48.8% shooting with 20 turnovers.

The Heat have shown signs of life during their three-game win streak, but that doesn’t just erase their four-game skid beforehand in a season defined by inconsistency. With Jimmy Butler (knee) ruled out and Tyler Herro (knee) iffy to play in Wednesday’s contest, I don’t see this one being close.

Celtics vs. Heat pick

Celtics -9.5 (BetMGM)

Pelicans vs. Raptors (8:00 p.m. ET) prediction and analysis

New Orleans opened this game as a short home favorite in the late hours of Tuesday night, but the market has correctly backed the Raptors here as the better side. You’d love the plus-money play, obviously, but there’s still value on Toronto here at a short price.

The key for this matchup, as is often the case, is injuries. The Pelicans will be without CJ McCollum (rest) and Brandon Ingram (toe), both of whom sat out Monday’s narrow win over the Thunder. This team has struggled mightily without them: New Orleans suffered its worst loss of the year when McCollum sat last Friday, and it’s lost four of seven games (2-5 ATS) when Ingram plays fewer than 30 minutes.

On the other side, the Raptors look whole again with Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes back on the court, as they were in Monday’s 12-point win over the Cavaliers. Neither played more than 30 minutes in their returns from injury, so I’d expect an even bigger effort from each in a very winnable spot.

Pelicans vs. Raptors pick

Raptors -2.5 (BetMGM)

Betting on the NBA?

Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets
Getty Images

Nuggets vs. Rockets (9:00 p.m. ET) prediction and analysis

Does this feel familiar? Two days ago, the Nuggets were dealing as double-digit favorites over the lowly Rockets and won by 16 points. On Wednesday, they find themselves in basically the exact same spot – one that’s been very profitable for bettors in the past.

Since 2016, just 22 teams have covered as a 10-plus point favorite only to face that same opponent as double-digit chalk in their following game. Those teams posted a stellar 15-6-1 ATS record (71.4%) in the rematch, winning seven straight (6-1 ATS) by an average of 25.9 points per game.

Denver was just starting to round into shape before Nikola Jokic’s three-game absence earlier this month, and it feels like this group is rediscovering that rhythm as of late. With how dominant this team looked on Monday, we should see a similar result in this one.

Nuggets vs. Rockets pick

Nuggets -11.5 (BetMGM)

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