# Gun stocks gain, suggesting a Trump loss may be anticipated
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Gun stocks gain, suggesting a Trump loss may be anticipated
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FBI firearm background checks top 3 million in a month for the sixth time this year, after topping that mark just once before in 22 years
AFP via Getty Images
Shares of gun makers rallied on election day, to outperform the broader stock market, which suggests investors may be anticipating a Biden victory.
A surge in firearm background checks by the Federal Bureau of Investigation this year, to already reach a full-year record in just nine months, also points to worries that tighter gun controls may be coming after the election.
RGR,
ran up 3.3% in midday trading Tuesday, and Smith & Wesson Brands Inc.
SWBI,
climbed 2.4%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index
SPX,
rallied 2.1%. See Market Snapshot.
Ammunition and firearm accessories maker Vista Outdoor Inc.’s
VSTO,
stock hiked up 1.2%.
“[G]enerally all of our contacts agree that the most positive outcome for gun sales would be a change in the White House, as historically an uptick in purchases under a Democratic president has outweighed any real risk of meaningful gun control measures,” Wedbush analyst James Hardiman wrote in a recent research note.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has had a clear lead over President Trump in national polls, with some oddsmakers putting the probability of a Biden victory at over 60%. PredictIt has it at 64% for a Biden win.
Don’t miss: Election Day dawns in U.S. as voters choose between Trump and Biden: live blog.
Also helping boost gun stocks, data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System showed that firearm background checks totaled 3.3 million in October, marking the sixth month this year checks topped the 3-million mark.
Before 2020, monthly checks had topped 3 million just once, in December 2015, since the FBI started providing the data in November 1998.
Year-to-date total checks has reached 32.1 million as of Oct. 31. Yearly checks had already reached a record of 28.8 million through September, breaking the previous record of 28.4 million reached in all of 2019.
Sturm, Ruger’s stock has soared 48.5% year to date, Smith & Wesson shares have rocketed 148.6% and Vista Outdoor’s stock has jumped 179.6%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has edged up 4.7% this year.
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