The Giants and Jets are in similar situations in Week 14 as Brian Daboll and Robert Saleh try to steer their Magical Mystery Tour buses through some dangerous curves on the road to the playoffs. Both teams take on the heavyweights of their respective divisions and favorites from their conferences to reach and win Super Bowl LVII.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Last week, the Giants achieved the rare feat of overcoming a double-digit deficit and blowing a last-minute lead in what turned out to be a 20-20 home tie with the Commanders. That result kept Big Blue (7-4-1) ahead of both Washington (7-5-1) and Seattle (7-5) in the wild-card hunt and put added importance on next Sunday night’s flexed game at Washington.

Before that, all the Giants have to do is figure out a way to beat the Eagles, who come to MetLife Stadium with the NFL’s best record of 11-1. Some numbers suggest this is a wheelhouse betting spot for the Giants, who lead the league in ATS record at 9-3. Others tell a different story.

The Eagles have a point differential of plus-112 while the Giants, despite their record that’s way above water, are minus-7 for the season. The most points the Giants have scored in any week is 27, and, remarkably, in every other game they have put up between 13 and 24 points. Philadelphia has lit up its scoreboards to the tunes of 38, 35, 32, 40 and 35.

And here’s another number that could matter: We’re in mid-December, and the Eagles had just three names on their midweek injury report. So they are coming here at full strength, motivated by the Cowboys on their tail in the NFC East, after doing unspeakable things to Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry last week.

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BUFFALO BILLS (-9) over New York Jets

The first meeting was a stunning, 20-17 Jets victory that was well earned but came about because of two Zach Wilson-like interceptions thrown by Josh Allen, the kind we are unlikely to see again. 

Though at first glance this seems to be a lot of points, I’m fearful there’s going to be the game when the Jets’ defense finally cracks open. There have been some definable fault lines in the past two games against the Bears and Vikings.

Like the Eagles, the Bills need to keep winning, with the Dolphins lurking just one game behind in the AFC East. In their four true home games in Orchard Park, they have scored 41, 38, 27 and 30 points. If they match that production, it will be hard for Mike White to limit the margin to single digits, even with Von Miller missing from the Bills’ defense.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6) over Cleveland Browns

Big in-season revenge spot for the Bengals, who lost 32-13 in Cleveland on Halloween. Expect Joe Burrow and friends to show no mercy if they get ahead in this one. Deshaun Watson was predictably rusty last week in his return at Houston and was aided by three return touchdowns. 

DALLAS COWBOYS (-16.5) over Houston Texans

Since Oct. 30, the Cowboys have scored 49 points against the Bears, 40 at the Vikings and 54 versus the Colts. Not getting in the way of that train as they face the worst team in the NFL. As Texans go back to Davis Mills, remember before last week Lovie Smith thought he was a worse option than Kyle Allen. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and friends name the score here.

DETROIT LIONS (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings

This should be the most fun game of the weekend to watch, as two excellent offenses try to match scores. I still find it hard to believe the Vikings are 10-2 but have a point differential of just plus-10 for the season. If Jameson Williams can contribute to what Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark are doing, the Lions’ offense would be scary.

Betting on the NFL?

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) over TENNESSEE TITANS

As alluded to above, Tannehill was sacked six times and Henry was held to 30 yards on 2.7 yards per carry in the blowout at Philadelphia. Though this is a far better spot for the Titans, they are very thin at receiver after Treylon Burks took a big head hit. I like having some points if Mike Vrabel tries to make this a three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust game.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2.5) over Baltimore Ravens

It’s not that I’m scared to back Tyler Huntley if he indeed replaces Lamar Jackson (knee), just that I believe the Steelers’ front seven is going to be rough on Huntley. Also think the Pittsburgh offense is starting to take shape as Kenny Pickett gets more experience.

DENVER BRONCOS (+9.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos are a disgusting 4-8 against the spread this season, but do you know the only AFC team that’s worse? It’s the Chiefs at 3-8-1. Though I don’t think Patrick Mahomes’ bruised foot will have much impact, it could put him and Andy Reid in the mindset of trying to get out of Denver with any “W” rather than pushing for margin.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers

Yes, the hook does worry me, and both teams list their top running back (D’Onta Foreman for the Panthers and Kenneth Walker III for the Seahawks) as questionable. What it comes down to is, I don’t want any part of Sam Darnold against Seattle’s 12th Man.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Is it as easy as taking Tom Brady with points against Brock Purdy? Well, seems to me Purdy stepped right in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo last week versus the Dolphins and kept the 49ers locomotive on the rails quite nicely. Brady saved everyone’s bacon on Monday night, but now here’s a cross-country trip on a short week against a top opponent with a very manageable point spread.

Miami Dolphins (-3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Another fun game to watch with Tua Tagovailoa going up against Justin Herbert. Figure the Chargers’ defense is going to have a tough time keeping tabs on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, though keep an eye on the injury status of Waddle (fibula) and Chargers S Derwin James (quad).

Monday

ARIZONA CARDINALS (+1.5) over New England Patriots

New England’s defense has had some trouble with mobile quarterbacks (Justin Fields and Josh Allen come to mind). Now the Patriots have to face Kyler Murray. Also thinking the Cardinals have some people in J.J. Watt, Markus Golden and Isaiah Simmons who can get after Mac Jones.

Best bets: Cowboys, Seahawks, 49ers. 
Lock of the week: Cowboys (Locks 7-6 in 2022).
Last week: 6-9 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.
Thursday: Raiders (L).