#Kevin Holland vs. Stephen Thompson picks

“Kevin Holland vs. Stephen Thompson picks”

UFC Fight Night predictions have hit December here in 2022. Unfortunately, there are only three cards left before we break for the holidays, and a return hits in mid-January.

So let’s take advantage while we can. Especially with the future of UFC betting seemingly uncertain, thanks to Ontario’s shocking decision to ban MMA betting. Today we get the treat as they travel to Orlando, Florida, for a massive 14-fight card.

Ending the year on a hot note starts now.

UFC Fight Night Orlando predictions

Kevin Holland vs. Stephen Thompson

A Kung Fu fighter battles a kickboxer in the main event when Kevin Holland faces Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Holland has typically lost with his poor grappling, showcased by an easy submission loss to Khamzat Chimaev and decision losses to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson.

Kevin Holland poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night
Kevin Holland poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night
Zuffa LLC

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Thompson is mostly a point fighter at this point of his career, using his kicks hoping to carry his way to decision. Expect this one to be primarily a chess match on the feet, but if it goes to the ground, Holland would actually have the advantage, despite his poor history on that side.

The official pick here is Holland’s moneyline up to -170. At the time of writing, FanDuel has Holland at -158, a very fair line. Thompson is past his prime, and we haven’t really seen Holland outclassed on the feet. Frankly, Holland could have Thompson beat everywhere. BetRivers and Barstool Sportsbook have an amazing line on Holland by submission at +1100, whereas the rest of the market sits at +600. Target this one as a value spot, as Holland loves going for submissions and is a legitimate black belt in jiu-jitsu, but moneyline is the official play for 1.56 units.

Holland vs. Thompson pick

Holland moneyline -156 (FanDuel)

Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavolvich

Just a certified banger in the heavyweight division where two strikers with crazy power face off. Tai Tuivasa has the power of god in his hands, nearly knocking out heavyweight title contender and undefeated kickboxer Ciryl Gane. Tuivasa isn’t the better technical striker, but will always have the opportunity to land one shot on the chin for the win.

Tai Tuivasa of Australia knocks down Ciryl Gane of France
Tai Tuivasa of Australia knocks down Ciryl Gane of France
Zuffa LLC

Getting Tuivasa at +190 is a solid moneyline play, but he is really just a knockout or bust option. Back Tuivasa by knockout only, and expect this one to be over by the second round. Play Tuivasa by knockout on Barstool Sportsbook at +235, down to +215, before you start targeting method and round props.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavolvich pick

Tuivasa by KO/TKO +235 (Barstool Sportsbook)

Kyle Daukaus vs. Eryk Anders

On the prelim card, a potential snooze-fest takes place in the middleweight division. Eryk Anders is a former football player for the Alabama Crimson Tide and did a short-stint with the Cleveland Browns before moving on to the UFC. He has alternated between light heavyweight and middleweight in his career.

He matches up with the more skilled, albeit low-volume, Kyle Daukaus. Daukaus typically looks to lock up that brabo choke which has been used to submit the likes of Jamie Pickett and several others. With Daukaus having the clear edge on the feet, I’d expect that to be where the fight plays out.

Daukaus may look for those front headlock submissions like usual, but that’s not a good method here, as Anders has never been choked out before and basically has no neck. Think Ilir Latifi but 40 pounds lighter; you get Anders.

Anders is tough as nails and should look to get top control in grappling exchanges. Bet this one to go to a decision at -132 or better on FanDuel.

UFC Fight Night pick

Fight goes to decision -132 (FanDuel)

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