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#Jarod Cannonier vs. Robert Whittaker

#Jarod Cannonier vs. Robert Whittaker

The main card for UFC 254 from Fight Island in the United Arab Emirates begins at an unusually early 2 p.m. ET on Saturday, as the UFC tries to accommodate the fans of Russian lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Here are some thoughts on how to bet on two of the high-profile undercard skirmishes.

Jared Cannonier -121 vs. Robert Whittaker +100, middleweight (185 pounds)

Whittaker held the middleweight title until Israel Adesanya finished him in October 2019. Since then, Whittaker beat Darren Till via a five-round decision in a fight in which neither looked impressive.

Whittaker has a vast experience advantage over Cannonier and has fought in many five-round main events, which can only pad his confidence. For this three-round co-main event, I expect both to forget measured tactics and instead go right after each other.

Cannonier started his career fighting heavyweight, then light-heavyweight and has now found a home at middleweight, where he has fared quite well. At middleweight, Cannonier’s explosion, power and striking are lethal, and he has an underrated ground game. Cannonier has been smacked by much larger men than Whittaker, and while Whittaker has a whale of a left hook, it’s something Cannonier is preparing for — even though he does not want to taste it much.

For Whittaker, this fight is his career. He earns another title chance with a win. But with a setback he free-falls down the middleweight ranks. Whittaker’s previous wars have affected the quickness, snap and fluidity of his strikes. It happens that those are the exact attributes his opponent totes into the cage Saturday night.

Cannonier’s speed, explosive striking, hunger for recognition and ability to weather heavy strikes from men well larger than Whittaker provide an advantage. By Round 2 I expect to see the snap of Whittaker’s strikes fading as he begins to slow. At that point, Cannonier will be most dangerous.

The pick: Cannonier, -121.

Alexander Volkov -189 vs. Walt Harris +155, heavyweight (265 pounds)

Harris is a great human who is a tremendous fighter for six minutes or so. At 37, Harris is explosive, has profuse power and is as game as they get.

But Volkov will be the younger man by six years and will hold height and reach advantages besides being the more complete, well-rounded striker. Wrestling has been considered a major weakness for Volkov, but he used it quite well in his last bout against the division’s top wrestler and he might need to employ it against the 6-foot-5, 265-pound Harris, who will be looking to put out his lights.

In my judgment, Harris has a round and a half to catch Volkov or tackle him to the canvas and try to get on top to employ a heavy dose of ground and pound. If he cannot end this early, I look for Volkov to remain at distance and pick Harris apart with his superior striking.

The strategy: Volkov opened -195, but we’ve seen some Harris money compress this line a bit. I like Volkov at -160 or less, but will use patience to see if his price gets there.

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