#Islanders vs. Capitals matchups: Barry Trotz has edge over former team

A season after Barry Trotz told the Capitals they would have to go through the (expletive) Island to get to another Stanley Cup, their playoff matchup against the Islanders has finally arrived.

Trotz’s old team and current one won’t actually get to play on Long Island, instead confined to the NHL’s bubble in Toronto, but their first-round series beginning Wednesday should be an entertaining battle nonetheless. The Capitals know Trotz’s system well, and Trotz is plenty familiar with the stars who lead the way for the team that was atop the Metropolitan Division when play was suspended back in March

The wild card in this stage of the NHL’s postseason is whether teams that played in the qualifiers will have any advantage over the teams that just played round-robin seeding games. The Islanders, coming off a 3-1 series win over the Panthers, will try to keep their momentum going against an even better opponent.

Islanders vs. Capitals matchups:

Goaltending

Semyon Varlamov drew all four starts in the qualifying round and stopped 96 of the 103 shots he faced. The former Capital was mostly strong in net, providing the Islanders with more of the same from the regular season, when he posted a 2.62 goals-against average and .914 save percentage. Thomas Greiss offers a quality backup option if needed.

While Braden Holtby was a leading force for the Capitals during their run to the Stanley Cup in 2018, he is coming off the worst regular season of his career, in which accrued a 3.11 goals-against average and .897 save percentage. Rookie Ilya Samsonov had a strong season behind him, but he did not make it to Toronto after suffering an injury during the pause, leaving them with plenty of inexperience beyond Holtby.

But the layoff may have served Holtby well as he stopped 74 of 80 shots in the round-robin games and said he was able “to fix a few things and work on a few things” before returning to play.

Edge: Islanders

Defense

The Islanders’ blue-line depth was on full display in the qualifiers as Johnny Boychuk got knocked out early with an injury and was replaced by another veteran in Andy Greene, who filled in admirably to keep the defense humming. Boychuk is expected to be available for Game 1, giving Trotz some good, tough decisions to make.

The Capitals, meanwhile, could be in for a big boost of their own if John Carlson is able to play. The 2020 Norris Trophy finalist, who notched 15 goals and 60 assists in the regular season, seems to be trending in the right direction after suffering an undisclosed injury in the Capitals’ exhibition and not playing in any of the round-robin games. He had been paired with another veteran, Brenden Dillon, on his left, but the Caps’ depth doesn’t match the Islanders.

Edge: Islanders

Forwards

The Islanders got a huge qualifying-round performance from Anthony Beauvillier (three goals, two assists), whose emergence on the second line could be key if he is able to carry it over into this series. The top line of Anders Lee-Mathew Barzal-Jordan Eberle had its moments while Jean-Gabriel Pageau has stabilized the third line. The physical fourth line of Matt Martin-Casey Cizikas-Cal Clutterbuck could see some important minutes again matched with the Caps’ top line.

About that top line: Alex Ovechkin is still on it and the nine-time Richard Trophy winner, for the most goals in the league, remains entirely capable of taking over a series. The 34-year-old, who piled up 48 goals and 19 assists during the regular season, is joined by Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson — the same trio that Trotz put together during their Stanley Cup run in 2018.

While Wilson is largely known for his physical play and the way he irritates opponents — the Islanders could insert Ross Johnston into the lineup for help there — Trotz has raved about his overall ability.

Edge: Capitals

Special teams

Ovechkin is especially a threat on the power play with his one-timers about as dangerous as anything in the NHL. The Capitals were 17th in the league with a 19.44 power-play percentage during the regular season, with T.J. Oshie another key player on the man-advantage. The Islanders produced at a 17.26 clip on the power play during the regular season, but went 4-for-16 against the Panthers.

The Capitals’ penalty kill is formidable as well, successfully killing off 82.57 percent of penalties during the regular season — good for sixth in the league. The Islanders were 15th at 80.68 percent.

Edge: Capitals

Coaching

It’s the veteran coach versus the former pupil.

Todd Reirden joined Trotz’s staff in Washington in 2014, watching him lead the Capitals to the promised land before replacing him in 2018. The Caps lost in the first round of the playoffs last year in Reirden’s first postseason at the helm. Trotz, with much more experience under his belt and a deep knowledge of the Capitals’ roster, should have the upper hand.

Edge: Islanders

Prediction

The Islanders’ structure and no-frills game treated them well in the qualifying round and it appears that kind of hockey could go a long way in the bubble. Islanders in seven.