# Here are the Senate races to watch, as Democrats battle to take control from Republicans

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated 10 seats as solidly Republican and 10 as solidly Democratic as of Friday, meaning the independent newsletter’s analysts view 15 races as competitive, with ratings that range from “Toss up” to “Lean D” or “Likely R.”

The table below lays out these 15 key races, and it includes Cook’s ratings and forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.

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Key Senate races in 2020

	State	Incumbent candidate	Other candidate(s)	FiveThirtyEight forecast	Cook rating
1	Arizona	Martha McSally (R)	Mark Kelly (D)	78% chance for D win	Lean D
2	Colorado	Cory Gardner (R)	John Hickenlooper (D)	76% chance for D win	Lean D
3	Maine	Susan Collins (R)	Sara Gideon (D)	62% chance for D win	Toss up
4	Alabama	Doug Jones (D)	Tommy Tuberville (R)	76% chance for R win	Lean R
5	North Carolina	Thom Tillis (R)	Cal Cunningham (D)	65% chance for D win	Toss up
6	Iowa	Joni Ernst (R)	Theresa Greenfield (D)	51% chance for D win	Toss up
7	Montana	Steve Daines (R)	Steve Bullock (D)	70% chance for R win	Toss up
8	Georgia (1)	David Perdue (R)	Jon Ossoff (D)	74% chance for R win	Toss up
9	Georgia (2)	Kelly Loeffler (R)	Doug Collins (R), Raphael Warnock (D)	75% chance for R win	Lean R
10	South Carolina	Lindsey Graham (R)	Jaime Harrison (D)	76% chance for R win	Toss up
11	Kansas	N/A, incumbent retiring (R)	Roger Marshall (R), Barbara Bollier (D)	75% chance for R win	Lean R
12	Alaska	Dan Sullivan (R)	Al Gross (D)	80% chance for R win	Likely R
13	Michigan	Gary Peters (D)	John James (R)	81% chance for D win	Lean D
14	Texas	John Cornyn (R)	MJ Hegar (D)	88% chance for R win	Likely R
15	Kentucky	Mitch McConnell (R)	Amy McGrath (D)	96% chance for R win	Likely R

Sources: Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight data as of 10/9/20

Republicans are the incumbents in 13 out of the 15 competitive races. The GOP currently has 53 seats in the Senate, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber — or just three if Biden wins the presidential contest, because a Democratic vice president, Kamala Harris, would cast tie-breaking votes.

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Henrietta Treyz, director of economy policy at Veda Partners, said in a recent note that she expects Republican incumbents to lose their races in Arizona, Colorado and Maine, but she also sees a Republican win in Alabama, resulting in a 51-49 majority in the Senate for the GOP.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has given a 68% chance for a Democratic takeover of the Senate as of Friday, and Height Capital Markets analysts put it at 69%. Height’s team also has warned that it could take time to determine the winner of this year’s Senate contests.

“Even as investors are beginning to discount the possibility of a period after the election in which presidential winner is not known for weeks, the chances of uncertainty about control of the Senate are rising,” the analysts said in a note.

Recent gains for U.S. stocks
SPX,
+0.59%
 have been pinned in part on investors becoming less concerned about a contested presidential election.

Democrats took control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm election and are widely expected to remain in charge there after this November’s voting. The party lost its grip on the Senate in 2014’s midterm election, when Republican candidates picked up seats in key battleground states.