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#Expect ugly game, take Under

#Expect ugly game, take Under

The New York Jets-New England Patriots showdown on “Monday Night Football” features AFC East rivals desperate for a victory.

The Patriots (2-5 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) have lost four straight, most recently falling to the Bills, 24-21, although they were covered as four-point road underdogs. The Patriots never have lost five straight games in the Bill Belichick era.

The Jets (0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS) are the only winless team in the NFL. They are coming off a 36-9 loss to the Chiefs, failing to cover as a 20-point road underdog. This line opened with New England listed as a 7.5-point road favorite.

The public knows the Patriots are struggling but can’t stomach backing the winless Jets. However, despite roughly two-thirds of bets taking the Patriots, we saw the line fall from New England -7.5 to -7. That signaled some smart money buying low on the Jets at home getting the points.

The line jumped back up, all the way to 9.5, when the Jets announced Sam Darnold would not start, due to a shoulder injury. Joe Flacco will take his place. The Jets have value as a divisional underdog and a contrarian play in a heavily bet prime-time game.

This likely will be an ugly game between two teams that are hard on the eyes. The Patriots lack playmakers at receiver (all of them are undrafted and unheard of) and struggle to make explosive plays on offense. They will run the ball, shorten the game and protect a defense that is not as good as it has been in the past few years.

As for Flacco, the year is not 2012. Flacco has had a great career and was once an upper-echelon quarterback with a knack for playing well in big games. Those days, however, are long gone. The last we saw Flacco was in Week 6, when he was on the wrong end of a shutout in Miami.

Expect both teams to run the ball and play conservatively, which will run the clock and keeps this game close and low-scoring. Look for a 20-10 type of game that gets your Under bets in the win column. Just don’t expect to have fun watching it.

The Play: Jets-Patriots, Under 40.5.

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