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#Dolphins vs. Jets prediction: NFL picks, odds

“Dolphins vs. Jets prediction: NFL picks, odds”

Five weeks ago, it would have seemed preposterous that the Dolphins’ playoff hopes would rest on their regular-season finale after a sizzling 8-3 start. Five losses later, everything comes down to Sunday’s bout with the division rival Jets, who are looking to play spoiler after a disappointing end to the season.

New York has lost five straight entering this weekend, though it was briefly favored to win this one before late money came in on the Dolphins. Can the Jets snap their own losing streak and deny Miami a trip to the postseason?

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Here’s how we’re betting Sunday’s contest, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Fox.


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Dolphins vs. Jets (1 p.m. ET, Fox) pick

Dolphins vs. Jets (1 p.m. ET, Fox) prediction and analysis

Just how much does motivation matter in Week 18? That’s ultimately what will decide Sunday’s contest, which pits one team with everything to lose against another playing for pride and a chance to put a positive spin on a frustrating campaign.

On paper, the Dolphins are the worse team here for a handful of reasons – namely their troubles under center. This isn’t the team that roared to an 8-3 start behind MVP candidate Tua Tagovailoa, who was the ultimate field general surrounded by elite skill-position talent and a passable offensive line.

Instead, injuries have defined this team’s epic late-season collapse. Tagovailoa (concussion) has already been ruled out of Sunday’s affair, which will mark his second straight game on the bench and fourth missed contest this season. (Miami is 0-4 without him.) Crucially, perennial Pro Bowl lineman Terron Armstead is also questionable with myriad injuries, as is star wideout Jaylen Waddle (shoulder) and backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (finger).

That leaves rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson in line to start his second game of the season with a limited supporting cast and immense pressure on his shoulders. We’ve already seen how this might turn out: the seventh-rounder managed just 89 yards in his first start of the year, and he mustered 104 yards with a touchdown and a pick in last week’s extended action against the Patriots.

Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco
Getty Images

Thompson was also dominated by the Jets’ defense in his first-ever appearance in Week 5, when New York held him to 166 yards and an interception in a 40-17 blowout win. That should give Dolphins bettors serious pause, as this offense has struggled mightily whenever Tagovailoa isn’t active and Miami’s defense has been a train wreck for most of the season.

Yes, Joe Flacco is in line to start for the Jets on Sunday, though it’s not like his team needed much from Zach Wilson (210 yards, 0 TDs) when these clubs met in Week 5. It’s hard to see why this result would be much different this time around with Miami’s chief advantage (Tagovailoa) out of the picture.

Of course, there’s still the elephant in the room: motivation. If the ‘Fins win on Sunday, they’ll lock up the final playoff spot in the AFC, which felt all but guaranteed over a month ago. The Jets were eliminated from playoff contention last week and, in theory, have nothing to play for this weekend.

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Here’s the thing: historically, that hardly matters at all. Since 2011, teams that need to win in the final week to keep their playoff hopes alive are just 14-20-2 against the spread (41.2%), with 12 of those 36 teams losing outright against a team with nothing on the line (33.3%). That’s nearly identical to the win percentage of all underdogs in any given week.

Fittingly, that list of 12 losers includes these very Dolphins, who needed to beat the seemingly unmotivated Bills to make the playoffs in 2020. They lost by 30 points. That may not be the result here, but motivation alone isn’t reason enough to back a team that has looked lifeless without its starting quarterback.

Dolphins vs. Jets odds (via BetMGM)

  • Dolphins -3.5 (+100), moneyline -175
  • Jets +3.5 (-120), moneyline +145
  • O/U 37 (-110)

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