“#Colts vs. Jaguars line, prediction: Ride with big underdog”
Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his fourth season with The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+15.5) over Indianapolis Colts
The Colts need to win this game to clinch an AFC wild-card spot and, of course, every analyst breaking down the playoff scenarios is pretty much writing down a Colts “W” in permanent marker as if it’s a foregone conclusion. But, hey, we’ve seen teams in “must-win” situations like this turn in clunkers all the time, and this season is also littered with several previously inconceivable results, including these Jaguars beating the Bills 9-6 in Week 9 as 16-point home underdogs and +800 on the money line. We all know how much the Jaguars stink, but these are still professionals trying to put their best performance on tape for the new coaching staff, and they’re not going to just roll over for the Colts. I’m not predicting an outright upset, but don’t forget that the Colts beat the Jaguars just 23-17 as 10.5-point home favorites in Week 10, so we look for a similar spread-covering result here.
HOUSTON TEXANS (+10.5) over Tennessee Titans
The Chiefs’ loss to the Bengals on Sunday moved the Titans up into the AFC’s No. 1 seed if they beat the Texans on Sunday. Again, most people are expecting this to be a cakewalk, but give me the inflated points with the Texans. Once considered the worst team in the league with Davis Mills at quarterback, they’ve been surprisingly competitive down the stretch. Most people would expect them to be tanking for a higher draft pick, yet they’ve beaten the Jaguars and Chargers in recent weeks. And don’t forget they actually beat the Titans, 22-13, as 10-point road underdogs in Week 10, so they have the blueprint for success. Again, I’m not calling for another outright upset, but I definitely believe they can stay within single digits at home.
Last week: 1-1. Falcons (W), Lions (L)
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