After a two-game slide that ultimately squandered their early division lead, the Bills have rebounded with two straight wins to stay in the mix in the AFC East. Standing in the way on Thursday will be a familiar foe: New England, which is playing elite defense to key a second-half resurgence of its own. 

Here are three of our favorite prop bets at BetMGM ahead of Thursday night’s divisional clash between the Bills and Patriots at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video: 

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Josh Allen over 0.5 interceptions

We’ve targeted this prop a handful of times already this season, most recently in the Bills’ win over the Lions a week ago. Allen’s latest interception helped this bet cash for the sixth time in his last eight contests, and I’ll happily pay the extra price to get in on that action once again. 

Allen’s turnover woes didn’t start this year — he has at least one interception in 38 of 71 career starts (53.5 percent) — but his issues have been amplified by a struggling offensive line and a concerning elbow injury that coincides with his recent struggles. He has multiple picks in three of his last five games entering Week 13 and leads the NFL in total interceptions (11) and PFF’s turnover-worthy plays (21). 

Now, he enters his first of two clashes with a Patriots defense that ranks third in opponent passer rating (78.8), second in sacks (37) and, crucially, fourth in interceptions (12). Allen is already a likely bet for a turnover each week, and this matchup practically begs for another. 

Bills vs. Patriots pick: Josh Allen over 0.5 interceptions thrown at -145 with BetMGM

Betting on the NFL?

Rhamondre Stevenson under 61.5 rushing yards

Two months ago, Stevenson was the hot new thing at running back after a 161-yard breakout that earned him his first start of the season the following week. He has topped 60 rushing yards just once in five games since, and it appears as if oddsmakers are slow to catch on. 

The Patriots’ bruising back is averaging just 46.4 yards in that stretch and has looked more like an inefficient plodder than a rising star. He has tallied 3.63 yards per carry over those five weeks — only three of 54 qualified backs have been worse across the full season — and just three of his 64 attempts have gone for more than 15 yards. 

I wouldn’t expect any of that to change on Thursday against the Bills, who boast the third-best run defense in the league per DVOA. Buffalo ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game (105.6) and per carry (4.2) and should be able to keep Stevenson in check in what will likely be a favorable game script. 

Bills vs. Patriots pick: Rhamondre Stevenson under 61.5 rushing yards at -115 with BetMGM

Tyler Bass over 1.5 field goals made

Special teams props remain fairly similar each week, despite the wildly different usage of each team’s placekicker. That leads to values like this one, as Bass ought to be priced as a much shorter favorite to send multiple kicks through the uprights. 

Buffalo’s third-year kicker has booted two or more field goals in four of his last five games, highlighted by a career-best six made field goals just two weeks ago. It’s no coincidence that his opportunities have come as the Bills’ pace slows on offense. They’ve averaged nearly a touchdown fewer per game over the last five weeks while attempting 1.2 more field goals per contest. 

Similarly, the Patriots’ defense is allowing the third-fewest touchdowns per drive (.156) but the 14th-most field goals (.156) — a peculiar ratio fueled by elite red-zone defense and so-so average field position for their opponents. That’s the ideal recipe for Bass to string together multiple opportunities from distance on New England’s side of the field. 

Bills vs. Patriots pick: Tyler Bass Over 1.5 field goals made at -120 with BetMGM