What a season it’s been for the Tulane Green Wave. Back in August, Willie Fritz’s team was a 50/1 longshot to win the AAC and had a season Over/Under of 6 wins. Four months later, the Green Wave are the No. 14 team in college football and are about to play No. 8 USC in the Cotton Bowl.

And according to the odds, Tulane is not here to just make up the numbers. The Green Wave are just 1.5-point underdogs on Monday, meaning the betting market views this contest as a virtual coin flip.

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USC vs. Tulane (1 p.m. ET, ESPN) prediction: Tulane -6.5 (+230, FanDuel)

It’s also been a terrific season for USC, who only had their College Football Playoff aspirations dashed in a loss to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but this could be a tough spot for the Trojans. Not only will they be disappointed not to be among the four contenders for the national championship, but they’ll also need to make due without several key players.

Quarterback Caleb Williams has said he intends to play on Monday despite a hamstring injury, but the Trojans won’t have the services of star wide receiver Jordan Addison, as well as offensive lineman Brett Neilon and Andrew Voorhees. Those are some key pieces missing for the Trojans, who rely heavily on Williams’ ability to extend plays with his legs. With an injured hamstring, a depleted offensive line and one of his most important weapons on the sidelines, that becomes a lot harder.

And that’s before we even get to Tulane’s defense, which has been superb this season. The Green Wave ranked inside the top 25 in yards per play and were the 11th-best team in the country in limiting explosive plays through the air this season. Tulane’s run defense ranked 68th in success rate, but it also was 31st in preventing explosive runs. 

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Even if Williams is able to move the ball, the Tulane offense should be able to stick with the Trojans. Quarterback Michael Pratt is a savvy signal-caller and he’s got a star running back alongside him in Tyjae Spears, who racked up 1,376 yards and 15 touchdowns this season.

Overall, Tulane ranked 22nd in expected points added per play and 23rd in finishing drives in 2022, so the Green Wave will stack up well against a defense that finished the season outside the top-120 in both of those categories. 

In their current form, there’s very little between these two teams and there’s a chance that Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, doesn’t play the whole game. If that is the case, it’s worth taking a shot on an alternate spread and backing Tulane in a rout. 

USC vs. Tulane (1 p.m. ET, ESPN) pick: Tulane -6.5 (+230, FanDuel)