#Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Post-Strike Assessment of the Oscar Race

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

* * *

Best Picture

Frontrunners
1. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
2. Oppenheimer (Universal)
3. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
4. Poor Things (Searchlight)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
6. Past Lives (A24)
7. Maestro (Netflix)
8. The Holdovers (Focus)
9. The Zone of Interest (A24)
10. May December (Netflix)

Major Threats
11. Rustin (Netflix)
12. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
13. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
14. Nyad (Netflix)
15. Origin (Neon)
16. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)

Possibilities
17. Ferrari (Neon)
18. Air (Amazon/MGM)
19. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
20. Priscilla (A24)
21. The Taste of Things (IFC)
22. Dumb Money (Sony)

Can’t Yet Call
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
The Iron Claw (A24)
Napoleon (Apple/Sony)

Best Director

Frontrunners
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
5. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)

Major Threats
6. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
7. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
8. Celine Song (Past Lives)
9. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
10. Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
11. Ava DuVernay (Origin)

Possibilities
12. Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
13. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
14. George C. Wolfe (Rustin) — podcast
15. Michael Mann (Ferrari)
16. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
17. Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)
18. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron)

Can’t Yet Call
Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)
Ridley Scott (Napoleon)

Best Actor

Frontrunners
1. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
2. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
3. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Major Threats
6. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
8. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast
9. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
10. Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)
11. Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

Possibilities
12. Adam Driver (Ferrari)
13. Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)
14. Alden Ehrenreich (Fair Play)
15. Michael Fassbender (The Killer)
16. Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
17. Benoît Magimel (The Taste of Things)

Can’t Yet Call
Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)
Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)

Best Actress

Frontrunners
1. Annette Bening (Nyad)
2. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
3. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
4. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
5. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast

Major Threats
6. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
7. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
8. Issa Rae (American Fiction) — podcast
9. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)
10. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
11. America Ferrera (Barbie)

Possibilities
12. Viola Davis (Air)
13. Tracee Ellis Ross (American Fiction) — podcast
14. Leslie Uggams (American Fiction)
15. Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)
16. Anne Hathaway (Eileen)
17. Patricia Clarkson (Monica) — podcast

Can’t Yet Call
Halle Bailey (The Color Purple)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
H.E.R. (The Color Purple) — podcast
Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
Lily James (The Iron Claw) — podcast
Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon)
Maura Tierney (The Iron Claw)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Frontrunners
1. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
2. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
3. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
5. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Major Threats
6. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
7. Origin (Ava DuVernay)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)
9. Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Schuker Blum)
10. Nyad (Julia Cox)

Possibilities
11. Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin and Brock Yates)
12. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
13. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
14. Eileen (Luke Goebel)

Can’t Yet Call
The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)

Best Original Screenplay

Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
2. Past Lives (Celine Song)
3. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
5. The Teacher’s Lounge (İlker Catak and Johannes Duncker)

Major Threats
6. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)
7. May December (Sam Burch and Alex Mechanik)
8. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
9. Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
10. Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)

Possibilities
11. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)
12. Air (Alex Convery)
13. Cassandro (David Teague and Roger Ross Williams) — podcast (Williams)
14. Flora and Son (John Carney)
15. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)

Can’t Yet Call
The Iron Claw (Sean Durkin)
Napoleon (David Scarpa)

Best International Feature

Frontrunners
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. The Taste of Things (France)
3. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
4. Perfect Days (Japan)
5. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

Can’t Yet Call
Io Capitano (Italy)
Godland (Iceland)
Shayda (Australia)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Blaga’s Lessons (Bulgaria)
Four Daughters (Tunisia)
About Dry Grasses (Turkey)
Thunder (Switzerland)
The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)

Best Documentary Feature

Frontrunners
1. American Symphony (Netflix)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
3. Kokomo City (Magnolia)
4. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
5. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)

Rest of the Shortlist
6. The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
7. The Eternal Memory (MTV)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
9. The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
10. The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
11. The Mission (Nat Geo)
12. Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
13. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
14. Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
15. Every Body (Focus)

Possibilities
16. Occupied City (A24)
17. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
18. King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)
19. The League (Magnolia)
20. Joan Baez: I Am a Noise (Magnolia)

Can’t Yet Call
32 Sounds (Abramorama)
Black Ice (Lionsgate)
A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Story (HBO)
Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Judy Blume Forever (Amazon)
Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
The Mother of All Lies (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBC)
Uncharitable (Abramorama)
What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears? (Abramorama)
While We Watched (PBS)
Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)

Best Animated Feature

Frontrunners
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
3. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
4. They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)
5. Nimona (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. Wish (Disney)
7. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)
8. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)

Can’t Yet Call
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Leo (Netflix)
Migration (Illumination)
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)